Schwartz Financial Weekly Commentary (8/10/15)

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC, CFS Comprehensive Wealth Management and Retirement Planning   Weekly Commentary – August 10, 2015
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Michael L. Schwartz, RFC, CWS, CFS, a registered principal offering securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group, LLC., a registered broker-dealer and investment advisor.  Member FINRA-SIPC. Schwartz Financial and Independent Financial Group are unaffiliated entities.   This information is provided for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any security. The information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed.  Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.  An Index is a composite of securities that provides a performance benchmark.  Returns are presented for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to project the performance of any specific investment.  Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.   * The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. * The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices. * The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. * Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. * The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. * The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. * Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. * Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. * Past performance does not guarantee future results. * You cannot invest directly in an index. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Should the Lower Earning Spouse Claim At Age 62

 

It has become widespread practice for the higher earning spouse in a married couple to claim Social Security benefits at age 70. This will provide maximum income to the couple while that spouse is alive and to the surviving spouse after the death of either spouse. Once couples see the numbers, it doesn’t take a lot of arm twisting to get them to agree. Those that haven’t yet claimed set their sights on a claiming age of 70 and often decide to work until then. Those that claimed early without realizing how much they would be giving up often agree to suspend at full retirement age so their benefit can build 8% annual delayed credits to age 70.

What is not so clear-cut is when the lower earning spouse should claim. (Note: for pronoun purposes we are assuming the lower-earning spouse is a woman and the higher-earning spouse is a man because that’s generally how it is…for the baby boomer generation at least.) First let’s clear up one misconception. Some clients think it’s OK for the lower-earning spouse to take a reduced benefit at 62 because she will be jumping up to 50% of her husband’s benefit when she turns full retirement age. That’s not how it works. If she files at 62 she will be paid 75% of her PIA as her permanent benefit. When she files for the spousal benefit at FRA, she will be paid the difference between her PIA and one-half of his PIA, and this amount will be added to her existing reduced benefit. This will give her a combined benefit that is less than 50% of his PIA.

Nevertheless, some couples want to start the lower-earning spouse’s benefit early to get some Social Security income rolling in while the higher-earning spouse delays. Is this the best strategy for them?

Let’s look at it from a breakeven point of view. Claiming at 62 will give the lower-earning spouse more checks but in a lower amount. Claiming at 66 or 70 will provide a higher benefit but over a shorter period of time. The breakeven age is the age at which more total benefits are received under the later-claiming scenario than under the early-claiming scenario. Our calculators show us that when you are comparing 62 to 70, breakeven age is 78. If you are comparing 66 to 70, it’s 82.

But for couples there’s a twist. Because the higher-earning spouse’s benefit will transfer over to the lower-earning spouse as her survivor benefit, it will be necessary for the higher-earning spouse to outlive the lower-earnings spouse’s breakeven period in order for the delay to pay off. In other words, if he dies early, the lower-earning spouse would have been better off grabbing those reduced benefits starting at 62 because she’ll be giving up her reduced benefit for the higher survivor benefit before her breakeven age. (Note: Unlike with spousal benefits, there will be no reduction in the survivor benefit as long as the widow claims it at her FRA or later, even if she claimed her own benefit at 62. The survivor benefit is a whole new benefit, not an add-on.)

So you are looking not just at the age the lower-earning spouse will be when she dies. You are also looking at the age the higher-earning spouse will be when he dies, and whether it happens during or after the lower-earning spouse’s breakeven period. Got that?

The most extreme example of the delay not paying off is when the higher-earning spouse dies when the lower-earning spouse is age 70. In that case the lower-earning spouse would have foregone eight years of benefits only to transfer over to the same higher benefit she would have gotten if she had filed at 62.

The most extreme example of the delay paying off is when both spouses live to age 100. In that case the lower-earning spouse is enjoying for many, many years the higher benefit she got by delaying. For every year after the breakeven age that they both remain alive, the more the delay pays off.

Because there can be a disparity in the spouses’ ages, it’s more accurate to look at the breakeven period, not the lower-earning spouse’s breakeven age. If the lower-earning spouse’s breakeven age is 78, that’s a period of 16 years (from age 62 to 78). Add this to the higher-earning spouse’s current age to see how long he must live in order for her delay to pay off. If he is 70 when she is 62, he must live another 16 years to age 86 in order for her delay to pay off. This may not be worth it, especially if he is in poor health. If he’s the same age she is, he only has to live until age 78. If he is younger, say 58, breakeven occurs when he is only 74. In that case, it would almost certainly make sense for her to delay.

By the way, if you want to consider the time value of money with a reinvestment rate of 3% over inflation, the breakeven age is 84 if you are comparing 62 to 70 or 86 if you are comparing 66 to 70.

First, I like to consider the pure breakeven age, without reinvestment, taxes, or other variables which are unknowable. This results in a lower breakeven age and doesn’t require clients to reinvest Social Security benefits or other assets at a specific rate of return in order for the strategy to work. (Sometimes the alternative source of income, while Social Security is being delayed, is to continue working.) Second, I think the average life expectancy is irrelevant when you are working with live human beings who comprise their own little risk pool. By definition, half of all people will outlive the average life expectancy, and there is some evidence that affluent, educated baby boomers will live longer than average. Third, and most important, the conclusion can vary considerably depending on the respective ages and PIAs of the spouses. Until you put a client’s numbers into a calculator, it’s all theoretical.

That said, I can see that it might pay off for a lower-earning spouse to claim early benefits, even if it is not the so-called optimal scenario. I’ve seen cases where the difference between the #1 and #2 scenario is small enough that the couple is willing to forego a few more thousand dollars in lifetime benefits in order to start Social Security income at age 62. That’s their choice and there’s probably not much downside, especially if starting the lower-earning spouse’s benefit at 62 will help convince the higher-earning spouse to delay to 70. And if the higher-earning spouse is over FRA and eligible to file a restricted application for his spousal benefit off the lower-earning spouse’s record, it can help mitigate some of the losses arising from early claiming. Again, this is why you need to contact our office at 215-886-2122 to run the scenarios in our “Spousal Planning Calculator” after having an in-depth conversation with you about goals, income needs, health status, life expectancy, and so on. The consultation without the calculation is incomplete, as is the calculation without the consultation.

 

Views On China

“Nothing in life is to be feared. It is only to be understood.”

– Marie Curie

 

 

Many people have asked me about the recent news out of China. “What’s happening to their stock market?” they want to know. “Will it affect us? Should I be worried?”

I offer the above quote as a response. Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood … and that includes what’s happening in China. So let’s take a few minutes to understand it!

 

The Year of the Bull Turns into the Year of the Bear

 

For about a year, China’s stock market has been on an incredible hot streak. In fact, it’s more than doubled in value over the past twelve months.1 That’s because millions of people—mostly working class families who previously had little to do with the markets—have been pouring their money into stocks.

 

This trend was driven largely by government-created hype. For months, state-owned media has been urging people to buy stocks, loudly proclaiming that the markets were the place to put their money.2

 

The resulting growth was explosive … and ultimately, unsustainable.

As the demand for stocks increased, so too did stock prices. But that didn’t deter investors, who kept buying as long as stocks looked like they were going up. They even engaged in some very risky behavior in order to keep buying. Many people even borrowed money to invest, a practice known as margin trading. Think of it like taking out a loan just so you can hit up a casino. All investing comes with risk,

of course, but margin-trading takes the concept to an entirely different level. It’s an easy way to turn “investing” into “betting.”

 

To make a long story short, stock prices rose too high, too fast. Meanwhile, the overall Chinese economy has actually been slowing down, and, despite its size, is thought by some analysts to be relatively weak in terms of growth.3 Financial experts have a name for when stock prices skyrocket above the value of the

actual companies behind them.

 

A bubble.

 

Starting in June, the bubble finally began to pop. Ready for some numbers? On June 26th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen composites, the country’s two biggest indexes, both fell over 7% in one day.4 By the end of the month, stock prices had declined more than 20 percent from their June 12th peak.5 By July 9th, the two indexes had both fallen over 30%.6 Investors had finally woken to the fact that their nation’s economy wasn’t an effective prop for their nation’s markets ... and that their own over-borrowing was a problem. Once again, investors acted emotionally—but this time, out of fear instead of greed. Their sudden loss in confidence led to a sharp drop in the stock market.

The Chinese Government Responds

 

Of course, China’s communist leaders weren’t about to just sit back and do nothing. Instead, they’ve enacted a slew of policy changes to try and stop the financial bleeding. For instance, they have:

 

 Ordered brokerages to continue buying stocks in an attempt to prop the markets up

 Lent money to said brokerages for the same purpose

 Announced new regulations on margin-trading and short-selling

 Cut interest rates to record lows

 Banned trading shares in companies whose stock is falling too fast

 

And that’s only the tip of the iceberg. Whether these measures are wise is an open question, but the point is, the government is working overtime to reassure the masses. As of Friday, July 10th, there are signs their efforts may be working. Both indexes closed the day up 4%.7 Time will tell whether things have truly stabilized.

 

What Happens Next?

 

Assuming the worst is over, China will need to turn its attention to the overall economy. If it continues to weaken, then the markets could resume their plunge. How does that affect us? Well, you may have heard the saying that “When a  butterfly flaps its wings in China, a tornado forms in Kansas,” or something similar.

That’s an exaggeration, of course, but in this interconnected world of ours, what

happens on one continent can affect another. After all, China’s economy is the second largest in the world. Their slump could, in theory, spread to other markets as well. The good news is that despite the recent slide, China’s markets are still up over 70 percent from where they were a year ago.6

 

The real question is, “What can we learn from all this?” Remember Marie Curie’s words: nothing should be feared, only understood. That’s why, instead of worrying about China’s immediate future, it makes more sense to see what we can glean from China’s recent past.

 

Lessons Learned

 

“Learning is a treasure that will follow its owner everywhere.”

- Chinese proverb

All this drama serves as a useful reminder of why the basics of investing are so important. For example:

 

 Never invest emotionally.

 

 Proper investing comes from having a sound strategy, preferably one that exists within an overall financial plan. The two Rs, ration and rules, are an investor’s best tools. Unfortunately, too many Chinese investors did the opposite. They invested emotionally.

 

When stocks went up, exuberance prevailed. When stocks started going down, fear took over.

Both ended up being harmful.

 

 Don’t rely on the media. Whether it’s state-owned or private, the media has a vested interest in stirring up emotions. In China’s case, people believed the media’s hype instead of relying on critical thinking or common sense. Never make financial decisions based solely on what you read in the newspaper

.

 Don’t try to invest what you don’t have. Excessive margin-trading is having a destructive effect on many Chinese families. Investing is not gambling … or at least, it shouldn’t be.

 

Regardless of how well off we are, we all have to live within our means.

I hope this message makes the China situation a little more comprehensible. In the end, my professional advice is this: always try to understand the “what” and “why” of what you hear in the news.

 

But don’t waste time fearing the “what if.” Remember the basics of sound investing. They’ve got us this far! As long as we apply them, we will continue to move forward on the path to your financial goals.

 

Finally, always know that my team and I are here for you. We will continue to watch the markets, both in China and elsewhere. We will never stop educating ourselves about what’s happening in the world.

 

And if there are any further developments we feel you should know about, rest assured you’ll hear from us promptly.

 

In the meantime, have a great summer! Please contact me if you have any immediate questions or concerns.

 

 

 

 

Sources

1 Keith Bradsher, “Guide to China’s Market Turmoil,” The New York Times, updated July 9, 2015.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/06/business/international/china-market-turmoil.html?_r=0

2 Charles Riley & Agnes Chan, “How China’s media and risky trading fueled stock market crash,” CNN Money, July 8, 2015.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/07/investing/china-stock-market-crash/index.html?iid=surge-stack-dom

3 “Why China’s economy is slowing,” The Economist, March 11, 2015. http://www.economist.com/blogs/economistexplains/

2015/03/economist-explains-8

4 David Barboza, “China’s Stock Market Plunges,” The New York Times, June 26, 2015.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/27/business/international/chinese-stock-indexes-plunge.html

5 Keith Bradsher, “Chinese Stocks Fall Into a Bear Market,” The New York Times, June 29, 2015.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/business/international/chinese-stocks-fall-into-a-bear-market.html

6 David Barboza, “Stock Sell-Off Is Unabated in China,” The New York Times, July 8, 2015.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/business/international/stock-sell-off-unabated-in-china.html

7 Charles Riley, “China stocks rebound,” CNN Money, July 10, 2015. http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/09/investing/china-stocksshanghai/

index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

 

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC®, CWS®, CFS, a registered principal offering securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group, LLC., A Registered Broker/Dealer and Registered Investment Advisor,  Member FINRA-SIPC.  Schwartz Financial and Independent Financial Group, LLC are separate entities.

 

Greece After The Vote

A few days ago, I sent you some information on the recent Greek debt crisis—specifically, what caused it and why it matters.  I also mentioned that the Greek government decided to hold a referendum on whether to impose new austerity measures in exchange for another bailout.  To quote myself:

Why is Greece back in the news again?  Because Greece has finally defaulted on its debt.  Recently, the Greek government announced it would not be able to make a scheduled debt payment of $1.6 billion to the International Monetary Fund.  In addition, Greece will probably soon default on many of its other obligations, both to bond holders and the European Central Bank. Essentially, it’s the same plot all over again with a similar script.  Greece has asked Europe for another bailout.  Greek’s creditors have responded by saying, “Maybe, but you’ll have to accept some extremely tough terms in exchange.”  (In other words, more austerity.)

The difference this time is that the Greek government seems unwilling to make that exchange.  Mr. Tsipras, the Greek Prime Minister, announced a nation-wide YES/NO referendum to be held on July 5, where citizens could vote whether to accept more austerity measures.  A YES vote would mean more austerity in exchange for another potential bailout.  A NO vote would mean Greece decides to call Europe’s bluff, bargaining the EU will continue to provide financial assistance anyway. Well, the referendum has come and gone, and the final results are in.  61.3% of voters chose the “NO” option.1 So you may be asking yourself: “What does a NO vote mean, exactly?”

The referendum itself was largely symbolic, because the bailout terms Greece was voting on had already expired.  Still, symbols are important.  In this case, the results indicate Greece has decided to reject the kind of austerity measures they’ve been subjected to over the past few years.  That means any negotiations between the Greek government and its creditors will have to start from square one.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking.  Remember, if Greece continues to default on its loans, the threat of bankruptcy will likely become reality.  That in turn may have a drastic effect on the overall European economy.

Other than the referendum, though, not much has changed since my last message.  As of this writing, the markets have dipped but not plummeted, mainly due to uncertainty over what might happen next.  The Dow fell 46.53 by the close on Monday, while the S&P fell 8.02.2

In the meantime, Greek banks are still closed while Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras decides on how to negotiate with creditors moving forward. In addition, Europe’s financial leaders are holding meetings amongst themselves to determine their next offer.  Both parties are hoping to strike a deal before the end of the month, when Greece owes 3.5 billion Euros to the European Central Bank.  If Greece defaults on that payment, then things get really interesting.  To quote myself again:

So what happens next?  What will this drama lead to? The answer to the first question is simply, “No one knows.”  As for what it will lead to, here’s the worst case scenario.  Let’s say Greece and its creditors don’t come to a new agreement.  If Greece goes into bankruptcy, that will raise the possibility of “financial contagion” throughout Europe.  It could even lead to Greece leaving the European Union, which could cause an even greater shock to the European economy.  In short, many experts are worried about a potential domino effect.  If Greece goes into default, it could start a chain reaction that damages the entire continent. But here’s the good news: Europe is in a stronger position than it was several years ago, and is better equipped to prevent financial contagion.  Then too, Greece makes up a relatively small part of the Eurozone economy, so its exit might not be as catastrophic as some fear.  In addition, the EU has a habit of doing everything it can to prevent a crisis from spinning out of control, so many observers expect a deal to be reached before the worst happens. All of that is still true.  As for us, we’ll continue to watch the markets and study the latest developments. What we won’t do is overreact to one bit of news, about Greece or anything else.  The day-to-day headlines, like the latest about Greece’s referendum, are merely rocks amidst a great river. They may look imposing, but it’s the flow of the river that we care about. 

So here’s the way we’re going forward. My team and I are always evaluating the state of your portfolio.  If we feel the need to recommend any changes, or move to higher ground, we’ll certainly let you know. What should you do?  Get on with enjoying your summer!  And remember that we’re here for you if you have any questions or concerns.  Please feel free to give me a call at 215-886-2122.  I’m always happy to hear from you!

Greek Debt Crisis 2015

GREEK DEBT CRISIS  2015

 

If you’ve opened a newspaper in the past few days, you probably saw headlines about the Greek debt crisis.  It’s possible you found these headlines easy to understand, with no explanation required. It’s also possible you shrugged your shoulders and said, “So what?”  The third possibility is that you thought to yourself, “Well, I don’t know why it matters, but I’m sure Michael will tell me more about it.”

If you chose door number three, you were right!   

In this message, I’ll explain the story behind this Greek tragedy, and why events in the Old World can have an impact on us here in the New. 

The Setting

Athens, Greece.  As of this writing, reports out of this proud, ancient capital are mostly calm right now, but that calmness masks the turmoil that lies beneath.  Banks have shut their doors.  ATMs are out of cash.  And banners proclaiming either YES or NO hang throughout the city.  More on this in a moment. 

The Characters (Dramatis Personae, as they would say in Latin)

A lot of people you’ve probably never heard of, but who are nonetheless central players in a massive, continent-wide drama.  The key figure right now is probably Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister.  Angela Merkel, the German prime minister, Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank, and Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, also have large roles. 

The Backstory

Simply put, Greece is massively in debt.  The main reasons for this are a long history of enormous budget deficits (the government spending more each year than they brought in) and inefficient use of government funds, among other things.¹  But the trouble really started in 2008 when the global recession hit.  Suddenly, many EU countries found that their debts had caught up with them, especially Greece.  The cradle of western civilization, as the country is known, suddenly found itself nearing bankruptcy. 

Because Greece is a part of a larger community, the European Union, its troubles affect more than just Greeks.  The EU is a political entity, but also an economic one. Most of its member states participate in a single market, which links each country together by using the same currency and economic regulations.  Many of these countries agreed that if Greece were to go bankrupt and default on its debt, it would harm them as well.  For example, if Greece cannot pay the debt it owes to other countries, those countries would in turn have greater difficulties meeting their obligations. This is sometimes referred to as financial contagion, and you can imagine it just like an actual contagious disease. One person gets sick, then spreads it to people around him, and so on. 

So the powers that be – namely the European Central Bank, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund – took action.  To solve (or at least forestall) the crisis, they used a familiar word: bailouts.  All told, Greece was the recipient of more than 240 billion euros in financial assistance.²  But you never get something for nothing.  In return for the money, Greece was required to institute austerity measures, mainly in the form of budget cuts and tax increases to bring their debt under control.  This has taken a large toll on many Greek citizens, leaving thousands without jobs and with no access to healthcare.  Last year, some reports suggested that rising infant mortality rates, drastically lower hospital budgets, and even a spike in suicides were all linked to the austerity program.³  

From a big-picture perspective, the bailouts helped Greece…but they didn’t cure the disease.  That’s because the money was mainly used to pay off loans rather than stimulate the economy.  The austerity measures that went along with the bailouts, meanwhile probably had a negative effect on the economy overall.  Think of Greece like a leaking ship.  The bailouts did their job and plugged the leaks, but they also made life far more miserable for the people onboard…and did nothing to make the ship any more sea-worthy. 

The Plot

All that drama has been playing out over the past several years.  So why is Greece back in the news again?  Because Greece has finally defaulted on its debt.  The bailouts, it seems, merely delayed the inevitable.  (Which may be a good thing from a global point of view, as the world is better equipped to deal with Greek bankruptcy than it was during the recession.)  Recently, the Greek government announced it would not be able to make a scheduled debt payment of $1.6 billion to the International Monetary Fund.  In addition, Greece will probably soon default on many of its other obligations, both to bond holders and the European Central Bank. 

Essentially, it’s the same plot all over again with a similar script.  Greece has asked Europe for another bailout.  Greek’s creditors have responded by saying, “Maybe, but you’ll have to accept some extremely tough terms in exchange.”  (In other words, more austerity.) 

The difference this time is that the Greek government seems unwilling to make that exchange.  Mr. Tsipras, the Greek Prime Minister, announced a nation-wide referendum to be held on July 5, where citizens could vote whether to accept more austerity measures.  Remember the YES and NO banners I mentioned before?  A YES vote would mean more austerity in exchange for another potential bailout.  A NO vote would mean Greece decides to go it alone.  In the meantime, the government announced it would close both the stock market and all banks for a week. 

The Stakes

To sum things up: Greece is once again on the verge of bankruptcy.  If it continues to default on its loans, the threat of bankruptcy will likely become reality.  That in turn may have a drastic effect on the overall European economy.  Greece continues to negotiate with the EU and the IMF over some kind of deal, but even if the Greek population votes YES, it might be too little, too late. 

The Outcome

So what happens next?  What will this drama lead to?  And why should we care? 

The answer to the first question is simply, “No one knows.”  As for what it will lead to, here’s the worst case scenario.  Let’s say Greece and its creditors don’t come to a new agreement.  If Greece goes into bankruptcy, that will raise the possibility of “financial contagion” throughout Europe.  It could even lead to Greece leaving the European Union, which could cause an even greater shock to the European economic system.  In short, many experts are worried about a potential domino effect.  If Greece goes into default, it could start a chain reaction that damages the entire continent. 

But here’s the good news: Europe is in a stronger position than it was several years ago, and is better equipped to prevent financial contagion.  Then too, Greece makes up a relatively small part of the Eurozone economy, so its exit might not be as catastrophic as some fear.  (As one writer put it, Greece’s GDP is roughly the size of Delaware.)⁴  In addition, the EU has a habit of doing everything it can to prevent a crisis from spinning out of control, so many observers expect a deal to be reached before the worst happens. 

In the end, though, optimistic opinions and pessimistic opinions are ultimately just that: opinions.  No one knows for sure…and fear is in the unknown. 

As for why we should care?  To put it simply, financial contagion can spread across the pond, too.  In this day and age, everyone is linked. U.S. and Canadian banks are intimately involved with European and Asian banks, because they’re all constantly lending and borrowing money from each other. The same goes for national economies.  So if Athens defaults, Paris and Berlin may suffer. If they suffer, Washington and Ottawa may suffer, too. And while President Obama recently urged Americans to rest easy⁵, the markets have been jittery.  The Dow, for example, dropped 350 points on June 29, and the S&P 500 fell 2%, largely out of concern for what’s happening in Greece.⁶  

So why should you care? Why does this matter? Because in the 21^st century, what happens in one hemisphere affects the other. What happens in our hemisphere then affects our country.  Our country affects the markets, which in turn affects… you.

Understand, that this doesn’t mean you have to follow Greece’s every move, or that these headlines are guaranteed to significantly affect your portfolio. There are many factors to take into account, and Greece is just one. In fact, part of my job as your financial advisor is to make sure that no single event makes or breaks your portfolio.  For that reason, I see no reason to stress.  We should continue remaining watchful, of course, but calm.   

In this global community we’re all a part of, the ripples near one shore will always reach the other. Greece has been and will continue to be in the news, so whenever you hear about them, I want you to know just why it matters and why you should care.  That way, you can ask the right questions. And you’ll know that all of us here at Schwartz Financial are constantly watching the news and putting it into context. So if anything happens, even across the ocean, we’ll know about it.  We’ll know why it happened. 

And we’ll know what to do about it. 

If you have any questions about how this news impacts you, or if you just want to chat about your portfolio, please don’t hesitate to call me at215-886-2122. I would love to speak with you! 

Sincerely,

 

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC, CWS, CFS

Michael L. Schwartz, RFC, CWS, CFS, a registered principal offering securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group, LLC  Member FINRA-SIPC. Schwartz Financial and Independent Financial Group are unaffiliated entities

 

Sources

¹ “Update of the Hellenic Stability and Growth Programme, pg. 14” Greece Ministry of Finance, January 2010. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/sgp/pdf/20_scps/2009-10/01_programme/el_2010-01-15_sp_en.pdf

² James Kanter, Jack Ewing, Liz Alderman, “Greece’s Debt Crisis Explained,” New York Times, June 30, 2015.  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/business/international/greece-debt-crisis-euro.html

³ Charlie Cooper, “Tough austerity measures in Greece leave nearly a million people with no access to healthcare,” The Independent, February 21, 2014.  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/tough-austerity-measures-in-greece-leave-nearly-a-million-people-with-no-access-to-healthcare-leading-to-soaring-infant-mortality-hiv-infection-and-suicide-9142274.html

⁴ Zachary Karabell, “The Greek Catastrophe is Finally Here,” Politico.com, June 29, 2015.  http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/06/the-greek-catastrophe-is-finally-here-unless-it-isnt-119519.html?hp=m3#.VZLlkflVhHw

⁵ Nick Gass, “Obama on Greece: Meh,” Politico.com, June 30, 2015.  http://www.politico.eu/article/obama-tries-to-ease-u-s-market-jitters-on-greece/

⁶ Heather Long, “US Stocks suffer worst drop of 2015 on Greek default fears,” CNN Money, June 29, 2015.  http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/29/investing/stocks-markets-greece-us/index.html?iid=EL