Schwartz
Financial Weekly Commentary
February
9, 2015
The Markets
What’s in an
employment report?
Last week, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Summary was full of
encouraging data. Employment numbers for last November and December were revised
higher which made 2014 the strongest year for job growth since 1999. However, 2015
isn’t off to a shabby start. The economy added just over a quarter of a million
jobs in January. In addition, Barron’s
reported:
“…Wages for
private-sector workers ticked higher in January, rising 0.5 percent from
December and 2.2 percent year-over-year. That sort of growth must persist to
indicate a trend, but it is a promising sign, and one that could quell chatter
about deflation in the U.S. The good news doesn’t end there. Low gas prices
could save the average household $750 this year, and household net worth
remains near an all-time high. It’s no wonder consumer confidence hit its
highest level last month in more than seven years.”
Consumers are
happy. Workers are happy. Who’s not happy? The answer may be companies and
investors. Barron’s speculated workers’
gains could come at the expense of corporate profits.
Last week, Factset.com reported analysts are
expecting to see year-over-year declines in both the overall earnings and
revenues of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index during the first
half of 2015. The downward revisions primarily reflect the expected performance
of companies in the energy sector. While prospects for the first half of 2015
have dimmed a bit, analysts are expecting profit margins to expand and
companies to have record earnings per share, overall, during the second half of
2015.
Data as
of 2/6/15
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard
& Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
3.0%
|
-0.2%
|
15.9%
|
15.2%
|
14.2%
|
5.5%
|
|
10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
1.9
|
NA
|
2.7
|
1.9
|
3.6
|
4.1
|
|
Gold
(per ounce)
|
-1.5
|
3.5
|
-1.2
|
-10.3
|
3.1
|
11.6
|
|
Bloomberg
Commodity Index
|
1.8
|
-1.6
|
-19.9
|
-11.1
|
-4.3
|
-3.2
|
|
DJ Equity
All REIT Total Return Index
|
-1.4
|
4.7
|
29.7
|
14.9
|
19.7
|
9.4
|
S&P 500,
Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does
not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized;
the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and
the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury
Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time
periods.
Sources: Yahoo!
Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance
is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested
into directly. N/A means not applicable.
what is the most common job in the
united states? In
the late ‘70s and early ‘80s, secretary would have taken top honors in more
than one-half of the United States. Machine operators and factory workers were
in demand then, too. However, since then, personal computers have made secretarial
work less prevalent, and technology and globalization erased many manufacturing
positions in the United States.
Since
the mid-80s, truck driving has become the most common occupation in most
states, according to National Public
Radio (NPR). One reason is that, so far, truck driving has been relatively
unaffected by globalization and automation. As NPR reported, “A worker in China can't drive a truck in Ohio, and
machines can't drive cars (yet).”
If
you’re looking for recession-proof jobs (take that with a grain of salt – the
Titanic was billed as being unsinkable), CareerProfiles.com
reported the following industries are expected to have the greatest job growth
during the next decade:
·
Sales
and Finance (marketing managers and financial managers)
·
Computer
software (systems software engineers)
·
Engineering
(chemical, electrical, mechanical, and civil engineers)
·
Computer
systems (systems analysts)
·
Finance/Accounting
(financial analysts, accountants)
·
Education
(certified teachers, teaching assistants and aides)
The
U.S. government’s predictions for the fastest growing jobs through 2022 are
slightly different. The top occupations on that list include:
·
Industrial-organizational
psychologists
·
Personal
care aides
·
Home
health aides
·
Insulation
workers, mechanical
·
Interpreters
and translators
Other
fields with good prospects include energy and the environment, healthcare, and
security.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The Eskimos had fifty-two names for snow because it was
important to them: there ought to be as many for love.”
-- Margaret Atwood, Canadian
novelist
Value
vs. Growth Investing (2/6/15)
|
3.13
|
0.33
|
3.15
|
2.07
|
17.59
|
17.59
|
16.78
|
|
|
3.13
|
0.01
|
2.73
|
1.66
|
18.15
|
17.58
|
16.12
|
|
|
3.04
|
-1.30
|
1.11
|
1.17
|
20.72
|
19.50
|
17.23
|
|
|
2.48
|
2.05
|
5.04
|
3.62
|
20.05
|
18.69
|
17.36
|
|
|
4.00
|
-0.78
|
1.99
|
0.08
|
13.75
|
14.73
|
13.81
|
|
|
2.99
|
1.34
|
4.27
|
3.24
|
17.07
|
18.13
|
18.64
|
|
|
2.86
|
1.09
|
4.04
|
3.79
|
19.50
|
18.46
|
19.89
|
|
|
2.77
|
2.05
|
5.09
|
2.89
|
14.21
|
15.96
|
18.04
|
|
|
3.37
|
0.88
|
3.70
|
3.04
|
17.86
|
20.06
|
17.97
|
|
|
3.55
|
0.72
|
4.33
|
3.14
|
12.87
|
15.94
|
17.77
|
|
|
3.31
|
0.48
|
3.85
|
2.39
|
13.89
|
15.76
|
17.02
|
|
|
3.58
|
1.84
|
5.62
|
4.54
|
9.85
|
15.04
|
18.55
|
|
|
3.75
|
-0.11
|
3.59
|
2.56
|
14.80
|
17.02
|
17.73
|
|
|
3.02
|
-0.69
|
1.89
|
1.79
|
20.00
|
19.04
|
17.81
|
|
|
2.60
|
2.03
|
5.09
|
3.53
|
18.19
|
17.88
|
17.65
|
|
|
3.85
|
-0.39
|
2.46
|
0.85
|
14.66
|
15.97
|
14.93
|
©2004 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar; (2) is not
warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Morningstar is not responsible
for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information and has not
granted its consent to be considered or deemed an “expert” under the Securities
Act of 1933. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and while these indices
can be invested in directly, this is neither a recommendation nor an offer to
purchase. This can only be done by
prospectus and should be on the recommendation of a licensed professional.
Office Happenings
Valentine’s Day: a
time for pink hearts, red bows, and white lace; a time for chocolate boxes and
rose bouquets, candlelight dinners, and cards.
It’s a time to celebrate romance … and a chance for forgetful husbands
and boyfriends to make or break a relationship.
But in truth,
Valentine’s Day is much more than that.
Long before the Hallmark® Card Company was founded or candy
hearts invented, there was a real Valentine, and his story is about far more
than romance. It’s about strength and
faith, courage, and conviction … friendship and love.
The Real Valentine
It’s hard to
imagine now, but well over a thousand years ago, Christianity was not the
dominant religion in Europe. Early
Christians faced intense persecution, and it wasn’t until the year 380 A.D.
that Christianity became the official religion of the Roman Empire.
One early
Christian was Valentine, or Valentinius in Latin. Actually, there may have been two
Valentines. Because one or both lived so
long ago, it’s impossible to know for certain what is fact and what is
fiction. But it seems that both men—if
there were in fact two—were martyred for their faith.
The first
Valentine lived in Rome during the time of Claudius II. As the story goes, Claudius was a very
war-like emperor who found it difficult to retain the men in his army. Thinking it was because they preferred to
stay home and establish families, Claudius forbade his soldiers to marry. Despite the edict, many Christian soldiers
still desired to marry their sweethearts no matter the cost. For help, they turned to Valentine, a local
priest. Despite the danger and with
little regard for his own safety, Valentine performed secret wedding ceremonies
for everyone who asked.
When
Claudius discovered this, he promptly arrested Valentine and sentenced him to
death. It was in prison, awaiting execution,
that he enshrined himself in the annals of history forever.
Having
befriended his jailer’s daughter (some sources claim he fell in love with her;
others that he healed the girl of blindness), Valentine frequently sent her
letters, each ending with the immortal words:
From Your Valentine
And that is where
the tradition comes from today.
Valentine died on
February 14.
The second
Valentine was the Bishop of Terni, a town some sixty miles northeast of
Rome. This Valentine was probably
imprisoned for proselytizing, although some versions of the story claim that he
was the first to wed a pagan man with a Christian woman. Regardless, he was captured, sentenced to
death, and martyred just outside of Rome … also on February 14. Because of the similarities between these two
men, many historians have supposed them to be the same person.
Whether there was
one Valentine or two, their stories are remarkable for the same reason: faith
under fire, courage in adversity, and an unshakeable conviction in what was
right. And it wasn’t just Valentine who
showed these qualities. Think of the
soldiers in the first Valentine’s story, or the Pagan man and the Christian
woman in the second, all committed to being with the people they loved despite
whatever opposition stood in their way.
And that, to me,
is what Valentine’s Day is all about. It
doesn’t matter who you are, what you believe in, or where you come from. Everyone can identify with Valentine’s story. Nowadays, corporations and advertisers
portray the holiday as being simply about romance, but at its core, Valentine’s
Day is really about something deeper.
It’s about celebrating the bond and commitment each of us have with our
loved ones. It’s about the dedication we
as ordinary people have to each other … a link that cannot be severed by anyone
or anything.
That makes
Valentine’s Day a day worth celebrating.
This year, I plan
to spend the holiday remembering how grateful I am for the people I love. I invite you to do the same. But however you celebrate, I wish you and
yours a
Very
Happy Valentine’s Day!
Regards,
,
Michael L. Schwartz, RFC®, CWS®, CFS
P.S. Please feel
free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list,
please reply to this email with their email address and we will ask for their
permission to be added.
Michael
L. Schwartz, RFC, CWS, CFS, a registered principal offering securities and
advisory services through Independent Financial Group, LLC., a registered
broker-dealer and investment advisor.
Member FINRA-SIPC. Schwartz Financial and Independent Financial Group
are unaffiliated entities.
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information is provided for informational purposes only and is not a
solicitation or recommendation that any particular investor should purchase or
sell any security. The information contained herein is obtained from sources
believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not
guaranteed. Any opinions expressed
herein are subject to change without notice.
An Index is a composite of securities that provides a performance
benchmark. Returns are presented for
illustrative purposes only and are not intended to project the performance of
any specific investment. Indexes are
unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be
invested in directly. Past
performance is not a guarantee of
future results.
* The Standard &
Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be
representative of the stock market in general.
* The DJ Global ex US
is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the
performance of the global equity securities that have readily available
prices.
* The 10-year Treasury
Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since
the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year
Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the
London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
* The DJ Commodity
Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the
commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19
physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT
TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the
Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo! Finance is the
source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific
periods.
* Opinions expressed
are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice
or to predict future performance.
* Past performance does
not guarantee future results.
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